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The Risk of Too Little Inflation
Low inflation may sound appealing, but as Russ explains, it has drawbacks for investors. By any account the U.S. equity market is having a stellar year. Stocks have benefited from easier financial conditions, which have in turn pushed up market multiples. By a happy coincidence, gains in market multiples have exactly matched the 15% gain in the S&P 500 Index.
The Coming Sino-American Bust-Up
Whether or not US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agree to another truce at the upcoming G20 summit in Osaka, the Sino-American conflict has already entered a dangerous new phase. Though a negotiated settlement or a managed continuation of the status quo are possible, a sharp escalation is now the most likely scenario. NEW YORK –
Fixed Income & FX Leaders’ Summit APAC 2019
Discounts for NexChange readers. See below. Come September, the world leading Fixed Income & FX Summit 2019 returns to Singapore. This year they will be focusing on current geopolitical issues, the development of Asian bonds and finance and  FX execution costs and liquidity injection through Fintech. Fixed Income and FX Leaders’ Summit APAC 2019 attracts over 300+ Senior Vice Presidents,
Emerging Markets: The World's Innovation Lab
In the late twentieth century the emerging economies operated much as they had in the early twentieth century. The largest sector in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, after financials, was materials. Put another way, the companies that extracted the emerging markets’ mineral wealth for export to the developed markets accounted for about a fifth of the emerging markets’ publicly traded
Our Latest Views on the U.S. - China Trade Dispute
In my December issue of Sinology (“A Truce Over Steak and Malbec”) I wrote that “prospects for real progress on substantive issues with China are now better than at any point in the Trump administration,” because Trump recognized that “a trade war with America's largest trading partner would damage the U.S. economy and equity markets, and thus the president's re-election
As Populists Rise, Latin America’s Economies Will Fall
In the space of a year, populists with autocratic tendencies have taken office in Mexico and Brazil, and laid the groundwork to return to power in Argentina. With the three largest economies in Latin America destined for further mismanagement, the prospects for growth in the region are dim. LONDON – Though US President Donald Trump tends to grab most of
Brexit Update: New Developments Raise No Deal Risks
Two important political developments in the UK over the last week have raised new questions about the Brexit outlook. While there’s still time for a compromise to be reached, we think the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal has increased. Last week’s dramatic events were not entirely unexpected. First, Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she
Risks From International Tensions Continue to Grow
summary In Europe, The Politics Thicken Businesses on Tariffs: Wait and See The Price of Trade Protection The European Union (EU) is a political and economic union borne after World War II of a desire for harmony in a scarred and divided European continent. The original concept was founded on the hope that it would “make war unthinkable and materially
China and US: Tug of Trade War
Shamaila Khan: So for the last year or more we’ve had this constant conversation about the trade war between the United States and China. What is your opinion on what is happening, and your expectations on how things are going to play out? Mo Ji: For the near term, [a] trade deal is still expected by the two sides, maybe
What Could Move the Markets Next?
Markets are not too expensive, or too cheap. As Russ explains, that offers a clue into what could cause the next move. Stock markets have been more wobbly of late. While the proximate cause was an unexpected deterioration (collapse?) in trade talks with China, many investors were getting nervous even before the most recent barrage of tweets. Some were understandably