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India Confronts Its Challenges, China Shows Restraint, and a New ECB Leader Is Named
SUMMARY India: Mind The Gap Is China’s Treasury Portfolio a Threat? Europe’s Key Person Risk Vaibhav reports on what’s ahead for India after recent elections. The decade of the 1990s in India was an era of rapid change. The sudden rise of new choices and shifts in consumer preferences was stunning, in hindsight. Not too long ago, to watch our
What’s the Long-Term Oil Outlook? Watch How the Majors Invest
What’s the long-term outlook for oil in a world shifting to renewable energy? Oil majors publicly say supply-and-demand dynamics will support the market. But their investment choices suggest that they’re preparing for a much weaker oil price in the distant future. Forecasting long-term oil trends is very complicated work. Demand is affected by variables, including the economic growth of emerging
The Trade War in the Context of Broader Themes
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that while most investors are focusing primarily on trade-related supply chain disruptions today, they need to continue to situate this turmoil in the more fundamental changes at play in technology and demographic trends. Myopia in life/death and in investing The leading causes of death in the United States, by an overwhelming margin, are heart
Weighing the Week Ahead: Chinese Fireworks?
The economic calendar is a big one, featuring the employment situation report on Friday. The rest of the data – ADP employment, auto sales, and the ISM surveys – will be released over 2 ½ days. The US Independence Day celebration on Thursday will provide one type of fireworks. And of course, we have Canada Day on Monday. The combination
The Pivot Favoring Emerging Markets
Russ explains why the suddenly easier central bank policies could be key for emerging markets. During the week of June 17th, almost every asset class, from emerging market debt to bitcoin, surged. The catalyst? The same one responsible for the 10-year old bull market: easier monetary policy. This suggests that while uncharacteristically stingy central banks may have harmed risky assets
Five Reasons Why China is Unlikely to Devalue the Renminbi
For years, President Trump has accused China of purposely devaluing the renminbi to boost exports. With trade and political tensions boiling over, the question of whether China will devalue the renminbi often comes up. We don’t think China will intentionally weaken the renminbi to counteract US tariffs. Yes, it weakened about 2.5% versus the US dollar in May when trade
What’s Good for the Chinese Consumer Is Good for Investors
Headlines scream daily about the “trade war” between the U.S. and China, spurred by real and threatened tariffs and fitful negotiations. These are not small issues, given that the U.S. accounts for almost 25% of global gross domestic product (GDP), and China is second at around 16%. The longer it lasts, the bigger the impact on these and other economies
The Risk of Too Little Inflation
Low inflation may sound appealing, but as Russ explains, it has drawbacks for investors. By any account the U.S. equity market is having a stellar year. Stocks have benefited from easier financial conditions, which have in turn pushed up market multiples. By a happy coincidence, gains in market multiples have exactly matched the 15% gain in the S&P 500 Index.
The Coming Sino-American Bust-Up
Whether or not US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agree to another truce at the upcoming G20 summit in Osaka, the Sino-American conflict has already entered a dangerous new phase. Though a negotiated settlement or a managed continuation of the status quo are possible, a sharp escalation is now the most likely scenario. NEW YORK –
Fixed Income & FX Leaders’ Summit APAC 2019
Discounts for NexChange readers. See below. Come September, the world leading Fixed Income & FX Summit 2019 returns to Singapore. This year they will be focusing on current geopolitical issues, the development of Asian bonds and finance and  FX execution costs and liquidity injection through Fintech. Fixed Income and FX Leaders’ Summit APAC 2019 attracts over 300+ Senior Vice Presidents,