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Fearing the Next Recession? Investing at the Front End of the Bond Market
Now in its 10th year, the U.S. economic expansion could become the longest on record: Our forecast calls for the current “late-cycle” phase of the expansion to last at least another year, barring any policy mistakes. However, we do think growth is likely to slow somewhat in the year ahead as the effects of tax reform fade, tighter financial conditions
Wisdom of Crowds: What Can We Learn From 8,000 People in 1974?
One of my favorite photos captures a line of over 8,000 people standing outside the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in August 1974 waiting to buy U.S. Treasury securities. With interest rates of 8.5% to 9.0%, investors craved these “high income” investments. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York The photo seems surreal today. For one thing, no one