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Video: Richard Thaler: The less attention you pay, the more money you’ll have
Asset Management
<p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Merryn Somerset Webb talks to author, academic and ‘father of behavioral economics’ Richard Thaler about pensions freedom, central bankers and fund management fees.</p> <p>This video first appeared in ValueWalk.<br /> Photo: Chatham House</p>
Goldman touts Iran investment opportunity
Asset Management
<p>On the day last week when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was delivering a speech at the United Nations bemoaning the Iranian nuclear arms deal and those around the world “rushing to embrace and do business with a regime openly committed to our destruction,” a report from Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) points to “The Awakening of Another Oil Giant” in Iran.</p> <p>Iran has "huge potential" but it is an investment wrapped in "significant uncertainty"<br /> The October 1 report asked the question, “Why focus on Iran,” then proceeded to answer: “Huge potential” that can be tapped but one that requires investors to do so in an environment of “significant uncertainty.”</p> <p>Iran possesses the 4th largest oil reserves in the world and largest gas reserves which has potential to be a key driver of global supply growth. Significant uncertainty remains, however, around the lifting of sanctions, the investment required in fields and infrastructure, and the framework to be put in place by the Iranian regime for international investment, the report noted.<br /> If sanctions are lifted, Iran could grow to fulfill nearly 25 percent of the expected global demand growth in 2016. Currently Iran accounts for 4.1 percent of global oil production and 5 percent of global natural case production.</p> <p>Unlocking Iran and its investment potential may take time and money<br /> However, don’t expect an investment in Iran to be an overnight success. “Growth may take time,” the report said, echoing a common investment pitch phrase that is most often followed by a call for cash. Such an investments is “requiring attractive contract terms and significant investment,” which Goldman estimates at $30 billion over 5 years. “There is potential for production growth far in excess of our base case, with the limiting factors ultimately being above ground issues, primarily around the level of investment that is incentivized. This potential growth could maintain pressure on oil prices, and delay the re-balancing of oil markets,” they wrote.</p> <p>The dropping price of oil is a concern for U.S.-based production, but those laws of gravity don’t necessarily apply to Iran, which has a much lower price of production. The report estimated that the average break even could be near $20 to $35 per barrel. With the price of oil hovering near $45, that appears as an attractive return on investment.</p> <p>This article was originally published by ValueWalk.<br /> Photo: </p>
The Tesla graveyard: Elon Musk calls out Apple
Venture Capital
<p> Year to date, Tesla Motors Inc TSLA 2.66% has outperformed Apple Inc. AAPL 2.39%, gaining nearly 2 percent versus a 1 percent decline in Apple.<br /> Speaking with a German newspaper, Tesla CEO Elon Musk dismissed concerns that Apple was poaching the company's talent, saying that Apple has "hired people we've fired."<br /> Musk added that, "we always jokingly call Apple the 'Tesla Graveyard.' If you don't make it at Tesla, you go work at Apple."</p> <p>Read more at Benzinga, here.<br /> Photo: Thomas Hawk</p>
Vitaliy Katsenelson predictions from 2010: shadow over Asia
Asset Management
<p>Five years ago, almost to the day, I was interviewed by David Galland, who worked at Casey Research at the time. This interview covered three topics: the Chinese overcapacity bubble, the Japanese debt bubble, and my sideways markets thesis. Five years is a long time, but with the exception of updating some statistics (for instance Chinese debt has gone up fourfold since), I really would not change anything. I have not been writing much on Japan or China lately because things haven’t really changed much – their respective bubbles have just gotten much bigger.</p> <p>I hope you enjoy this interview. Don’t kill your eyes; kill a tree (print it). Or you can watch a presentation I gave on the same subject at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab (link here).</p> <p>The Casey Report (TCR): Is China’s system better than everyone else’s? Is it really possible the Chinese economy can keep steamrolling along?</p> <p>Vitaliy Katsenelson (VK): A few months ago, I watched a movie about Ayn Rand and it talked about how Americans in the 1930s looked at the Soviet Union’s flavor of managed economy as being superior to the American version of capitalism. At the time America was just coming out of the Great Depression, so that view made a lot of sense. So in the short run, and especially after the ugly side of creative destruction has paid us a visit, the grass of managed economy may look greener.</p> <p>So when we look at China, the conventional wisdom says that the government is very, very smart, and therefore they can do a very good job in steering the economy in the right way. Chinese government may have the best intentions, its leaders may have IQs of 250 each on a bad day, but it is impossible to centrally manage an economy of China’s size.</p> <p>I am a big believer that in the boxing match between a visible and an invisible hand, though the invisible hand may lose a few rounds, it will win the match every time. Last century we had the most amazing economic experiment take place when after World War II, Germany was split into two countries with different economic and political systems. But they were the same people, with the same language and culture, separated by a wall. We know how that story ended.</p> <p>Of course, for a time, having government control over the levers of the economy can have advantages. For example, by taking prompt action, the Chinese government was able to pull the economy out of the recession remarkably fast, basically by fire-housing the stimulus package that was equivalent to 12% GDP. That’s the advantage. The only problem is that these kinds of short-term advantages come with long-term, painful consequences.</p> <p>For example, when you have a huge government presence in the economy, you also have a huge bureaucracy, and bureaucracy brings corruption. This is one of the reasons why China is rated so poorly on Transparency International’s annual corruption rating. Corruption breeds misallocation of capital, because the capital flows not to the best use, but it basically flows to whatever the political connection or whatever the bribe is directed to.</p> <p>In addition, when you have a government-managed economy, it creates excesses. China has huge excesses in the industrial sector, as well as in commercial and residential real estate. We see plenty of evidence of these excesses, but </p>
People Moves: Henderson beefs up its Asian equities team; T. Rowe poaches sales chief from UBS GAM
Asset Management
<p>Henderson adds two new hires to its Asian equities team. Wee May Ling, an 18-year veteran of the asset management space, is set to join Henderson Global Investors as an investment manager within its Asian equities team. Prior to joining Henderson, May Ling was with Lloyd George Management in Hong Kong, serving the firm as its portfolio manager running Greater China equities. She began her career in Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Securities in Singapore.</p> <p>Also set to join the British asset manager is Mervyn Koh, an ex-GIC man who will be working as one of the firm’s associate investment managers.  Koh was previously with Franklin Templeton Investments in Singapore, and was most recently a VP within its emerging markets group. He apparently co-managed the firm’s Southeast Asia fund as well. He began his career in the aforementioned GIC.</p> <p>On the firm’s new hires, Andrew Gillan, Henderson’s head of Asia ex-Japan equities, had this to say:<br /> “I am delighted to welcome May Ling and Mervyn to the team. They reflect Henderson’s commitment to increased resource within the region as we look to grow our Asia ex Japan equity products in the coming years.”<br /> They will be both based in Singapore. Henderson</p> <p>UBS GAM managing director moves to T. Rowe. Elsie Chan, a highly regarded player in the asset management intermediary market, has been named head of intermediary sales, Asia by the U.S. firm T. Rowe Price. Scott Keller, the firm’s head of global investment services, Asia Pacific, had this to say:<br /> “Providing top-quality investment solutions to intermediaries throughout the region is one of the key pillars to developing a successful and sustainable business in Asia. Elsie Chan is highly regarded and a very experienced practitioner in the intermediary market. Her deep knowledge and experience of the relevant markets in the region, in particular Hong Kong and Singapore, will enable us to accelerate our offering to intermediaries across the Asia region.”<br /> As previously mentioned, Chan was a managing director for UBS Global Asset Management prior to her jump to T. Rowe, and was responsible for the Swiss firm’s wholesale distribution in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia. Before that, she had stints at Allianz Dresdner Asset Management as well as in ABN AMRO Asset Management, though she apparently began her career in the U.S. at Merrill Lynch. She will report to Scott Keller. Asia Asset Management</p> <p>For Capital Markets moves, click here.<br /> Photo: Luke Ma</p>
Video: JPMorgan Asset Management tells CNBC Russia is cheap; China real estate bottomed
Asset Management
<p>JPMorgan Asset Management's Andres Garcia-Amaya says China's real estate market has hit a bottom and that Russia is his "biggest overweight." In this CNBC's Fast Money: Halftime Report, Garcia-Amaya notes that Russian markets are trading at a P/E of 4 1/2, lower than the market yield of 5%.  "So either Russia's going bust, or there's a lot more upside and we think there's a lot more upside."</p>
People Moves: Deutsche builds investment team; Portfolio manager leaves Schroders
Asset Management
<p>Deutsche builds asset management team. Hilary Aldridge and Alex Sloane have joined Deutsche Asset &amp; Wealth Management as equity investment specialists in its UK active asset management business. Aldridge most recently worked as a fund of fund manager at Barclays Global Investments Solutionss. Sloane was an equity analyst at Societe Generale in London. Michael Keough and David Hanlon also joined the firm's institutional global client group in the Americas. Hanlon comes to the firm from F-Squared Investments, and Keough joins from BNY Mellon's investment management unit. Reuters</p> <p>Portfolio manager leaves Schroders. Rosemary Banyard will be departing Schroders in March after joining the firm in 1997. For the last 17 years, Banyard has worked closely with Andy Brough to head the firm's mid cap funds. Banyard says she is not joining another firm, but is leaving to spend more time with family. CityWire</p> <p>Sierra Investment Management poaches from Mercer. Sierra hired Spath as CIO, reporting to co-founders Dave Wright and Ken Sleeper. Spath most recently worked for Mercer Advisors, but has also worked for Franklin Templeton Investments, RSF Capital Management, and Fidelity Investments.</p> <p>JP Morgan insurance lead moves to Neuberger. Neruberger Berman has hired Matthew Malloy as global head of insurance solutions. Malloy most recently worked as global head of insurance solutions and advisory at JP Morgan Asset Management. Malloy has previously worked for Goldman Sachs and UBS Investment Bank. Reuters</p> <p>Pioneer Investments promotes portfolio manager. Chin Liu has been named portfolio manager of Pioneer's diversified high income trust. The trust was found in 2007, and run by Andrew Feltus, Jonathan Sharkey, and Charles Melchreit. Liu joined Pioneer in 2007 as a portfolio manager for fixed income.<br /> Photo: ©</p>
Short-selling: Karl Loomes picks the six hottest US-listed stocks
Hedge Funds
<p>&nbsp;</p> <p> SunGard's Astec Analytics looks into short-selling activity.</p> <p> This week’s top pick, from a securities lending perspective, is, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN).<br /> Other stocks that are seeing substantial short-selling activity include ZIOPHARM Oncology Inc. (NASDAQ: ZIOP), Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK), Juno Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: JUNO), Fitbit Inc (NYSE: FIT) and GoPro Inc (NASDAQ: GPRO).</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>SunGard's Astec Analytics provides intraday short-selling market data via securities lending analytics. In a recent report sent to clients, the firm shared a “roundup of some of the hottest stocks from a securities lending perspective.”</p> <p>Below is a look at Karl Loomes’ list of top stocks in the Americas from a security lending perspective.<br /> Amazon<br /> After two consecutive weeks occupying the front-runner spot, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was displaced by Amazon. The online retailer recently banned the sale of Apple and Google streaming on its website, suggesting they don’t “interact well” with the Amazon Prime service, and announced its intentions to extend its one-day delivery service in the U.K. to include frozen and chilled food items – which led to some speculation around increasing competition with and from online supermarkets.</p> <p>The report explained, “The news helped bolster its stock in the cash market, while from a sec lending perspective Astec’s data hints at some growing optimism on the part of short sellers, with having fallen 26 percent during September.”<br /> ZIOPHARM Oncology<br /> Escalating one position in the list this week is ...</p> <p>Full story available on<br /> Photo: Rob Hurson</p>
Commodities ETFs want to get back into your portfolio
Asset Management
<p>&nbsp;</p> <p>During the halcyon days of quantitative easing, dollar weakness and inflation expectations, commodities exchange traded products were hits. Just five years ago, there was $125 billion in assets under management across commodities exchange-traded funds and exchange traded notes (ETNs) and there was a time, albeit brief, when the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE: GLD) was the largest ETF in the world.</p> <p>Over the past year, commodities ETFs have been beset by dismal performances and massive outflows, prompting some investors to question the value of commodities as core portfolio holdings, even in modest allocations.<br /> What Commodities Are Doing<br /> While the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: UUP), the U.S. dollar index tracking ETF, has climbed 9.3 percent over the past year, commodities ETFs have been decimated. For example, GLD and the iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE: SLV) have posted an average loss of 6.5 percent, while the United States Oil ...</p> <p>Full story available on<br /> Photo: Sajid Pervaiz Fazal</p>
VCs tech investments trump exits for the first time in years
Venture Capital
<p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Investors are now pumping more money into US startups than they are getting back in the form of exits.</p> <p>According to a report by CBInsights, total funding for this year has reached $42 billion, about $16 billion more than the $26 billion generated through exits.</p> <p>What's more, the VC investment total for the year to date has already surpassed that of 2014, and is more than double that of the 2010.  Exits meanwhile are less than a fifth of what they were in 2012.</p> <p>Fluctuations in exits and investments are to be expected over a long period. VC investments typically have a 5-year lifespan, while the fund life-cycle is anywhere between 8-10 years.</p> <p>Many of the VC funds making exits and returning capital to investors during 2012 have since returned to the market with follow-on funds. This means a lot of those VCs exiting investments in 2012 have raised and are spending the next three to four years deploying capital.</p> <p>That said, there are other trends to consider. Companies are staying private longer and funding rounds are getting larger, pushing up private market valuations. The upshot is that the funding aggregate is exceeding exit valuations faster -- even if we witness a number of large liquidity events in the fourth quarter.<br /> Photo: Indigo Skies</p>