News > Financial Services

Plenty to Worry About, but Not Much to Do
Every summer for the past several decades I have organized a series of Friday lunches in eastern Long Island for serious investors. More than 100 people attend the four sessions, with 25–30 at each one. The participants include hedge fund, private equity and real estate billionaires, venture capitalists, an academic and some corporate leaders. I moderate a discussion of the
Can a Growth Scare Benefit Tech Stocks?
Given the recent volatility, investors may be wary of tech. Not so fast, Russ explains. Despite an abrupt and punishing market swoon that disproportionately punished more volatile sectors, technology is holding its own. During the past month the sector has outperformed by roughly 100 basis points (bps, or one percentage point). Even with the prospect for more volatility, investors may
Yield Curve Inversion: Markets Are Correct to Price In Higher Recession Risk
On 14 August, the yield spread between two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds moved below zero for the first time since February 2006. Though it has since widened back to positive territory, the move was significant because such “inversions” of the yield curve – in which short-maturity yields exceed those for longer-maturity bonds – have preceded nearly all recessions dating
Takeaways on the Yield Curve Inversion
Economic Blog A closely watched point on the Treasury yield curve has fallen negative for the first time in this economic cycle. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Yield Curve Inversion Raises Economic Questions, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell as low as -2 basis points (-0.02%) in trading on August 14. Read
A Sustainability Framework: Societal Shifts as Investment Risks
Successful long-term investing depends upon the identification of sustainable companies. We believe traditional investment analysis tends to underestimate some risks faced by companies today. In particular, we see rising risks to sustainability from the potential breakdown of relationships between industries and companies with society. Each company and industry operates under a "societal license” that, if damaged or revoked, can ultimately
ECB Signals Easing, But What’s Left in the Policy Arsenal?
Acentral banker’s nightmare is losing control of inflation expectations. Whereas decades ago the challenge facing major central banks was reining in overly high inflation expectations – a process that ushered in central banks’ independence and inflation targets – the European Central Bank’s (ECB) challenge today is reviving unduly low expectations up toward its stated aim of “inflation rates below, but
5 Key Investment Themes for the Remainder of 2019
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback highlight the investment themes that they think will drive markets and dominate debate within the investment community over the next several months and beyond. Over recent weeks, we have been vocal about five “big themes” for markets that will likely dominate the second half of 2019. These themes take stock of a collection of secular
Interest Rates: Naturally Negative?
It is no longer absurd to think that the nominal yield on U.S. Treasury securities could go negative. Last week the German 30-year government bond yield dipped into negative territory for the first time ever. Around $14 trillion of outstanding bonds worldwide, or 25% of the market, now trade at negative yields, according to Bloomberg. What was once viewed as
On the Other Hand
Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: On the Other Hand It often happens that just as I’m about to release a memo, I come across something that absolutely has to be incorporated. That was the case on June 12, the day “This Time It’s Different” was published. I was reading a first-quarter report from Ruffer, a London-based money
Rising Risk of No-Deal Brexit
With the pound sliding to two-year lows, currency markets are signaling a higher probability of a no-deal Brexit. But the fallout from no deal would hurt the rest of Europe, too, and add to downward pressure on euro-area bond yields. Much has changed since we wrote our last Brexit update in May: the UK has a new prime minister (Boris