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China Takes Leading Role on Global Trade
About two years ago, I gave a speech about China and globalization. My main point was that China, after Xi Jinping's speech at Davos in January 2017, seemed to be turning into the global champion of free trade, just as the U.S. and Europe were turning their backs on the idea. My views were met with a great deal of
China for the Trade Win?
Empire of Debt Debt in Pictures Wargaming the Trade War Some Thoughts on Getting Through the Great Debt Reset San Francisco, Frankfurt, and Puerto Rico? With all the trade war talk, we all ask the obvious question: Who will win? President Trump says the US will win. Chinese business leaders say no, we will win. Free-traders on both sides say
Seven Ways Fixed-Income Investors Will Benefit from the Digital Revolution
At long last, fixed-income investing is entering the digital age—and investors should pay close attention to what their asset managers are doing to keep up. From better pricing to better solution design, the digital revolution that’s transforming the fixed-income management landscape can lead to a host of benefits. To grasp the performance gap between managers who upgrade their technology and
Australia’s Top Banking Analyst Warns of Housing Bubble
Whilst not as bearish on housing prices as the UBS team, Brian Johnson of CSLA here offers some very good points and insight. “Jingle mail” (or near enough to) will exist in Australia if shit hits the fan. Australia’s Top Banking Analyst Drops A Bombshell – Housing Bubble [REITs] Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Transcript For more I
Next Recession Ahead? Fixed Income Investing Ideas in an Aging Expansion
SUMMARY While we do not view a recession as imminent, we think investors should be prepared for the cycle to turn over the next three to five years. When thinking about their fixed income allocations late in this cycle, investors should consider the risks posed by higher interest rates, an uptick in inflation and stretched valuations, among others. We believe
Then and Now: Mortgage-Backed Securities Post-Financial Crisis
A little over 10 years ago, few people had heard of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Yet that changed when MBS brought the global financial system to its knees. Today, they’re still a pivotal part of the system, with the US Federal Reserve (Fed) the largest holder. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group’s Paul Varunok explains how MBS fit into the Fed’s future
Crescat Capital: China 'the Mother of All Credit Bubbles' Is Bursting
Crescat Capital Q2 letter to investors on the China credit bubble and why its a good short. Our current three best macro ideas today are complementary plays on the unwinding of currency and financial asset bubbles at a likely peak of a global capital cycle, the most leveraged in history: Shorting US stocks at proven, historic-high valuations relative to underlying fundamentals
Learnings from Lehman Brothers
September 15, 2008, is a day that I will never forget. I was working for the Federal Reserve at that time, based in Chicago. My office phone rang early that morning: it was my counterpart at the Fed in New York. “Lehman Brothers has filed for bankruptcy and all hell is breaking loose,” I remember him saying. “Can you get
The Art of Monetary Policy
SUMMARY The scientific approach to monetary policy, including a macroeconomic framework for analyzing inflation targeting and interest rate rules, has been very influential over the past 20 years. In the wake of the financial crisis, however, quantitative easing and important structural changes in the economy have made the traditional science of monetary policy somewhat less useful for policymakers. Until the
5 World Currencies That Are Closely Tied to Commodities
This year, commodity prices have been under pressure from a strong U.S. dollar and trade war fears. This has made a huge dent in the balance sheet of many net exporters of resources, in turn weakening their currencies. However, commodities could be on the rebound and are flashing a massive buy signal. This should come as a shock to no