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Nailed It: This leveraged ETF is on fire
Asset Management
<p>Homebuilder stocks and exchange traded funds have recently been buoyed by a spate of encouraging data. Data out Monday show the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index jump three points to 64, its highest reading in a decade.</p> <p>On Tuesday, it was revealed that September housing starts surged 6.5 percent, well ahead of the 1.4 percent increase expected by economists. Predictably, those data points and other are boosting homebuilder stocks and ETFs. For example, the $2.1 billion iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSE: ITB) is up 7.7 percent this year and resides at its highest levels in over eight years.</p> <p>Gains for homebuilders and stocks would be even more impressive if not for a slump that started in August and lasted well into September, but the aforementioned data points ...</p> <p>Full story available on</p> <p>Photo: istock/PhilAugustavo</p>
Hedge funds post largest asset declines since ‘08
Hedge Funds
<p>Investors may have kind been to hedge funds during the third quarter, but apparently, the market was just too much for them:<br /> “Total global hedge fund capital posted the largest decline since the Financial Crisis in the third quarter, as global financial market volatility surged on uncertainty over US interest rates, China and M&amp;A transactions. Estimated hedge fund capital declined by $95 billion across all strategy areas to end the quarter at $2.87 trillion, as new investor capital inflows only partially offset performance-based declines.”<br /> The quarterly asset decline is supposedly the first since the second quarter of 2012 and the largest since fourth quarter of 2008, according to HFR. Inflows remained strong though, with three of the four main hedge fund strategies boasting net capital inflows for the quarter. Event-driven funds for example saw $5.4 billion in inflows while relative value funds punched in $2.9 billion. Macro funds however experienced $5.1 billion in outflows, largely due to the Fed cooking the emerging markets and China's slowdown hurting commodities.<br /> Photo: Lucas Stanley</p>
Watch out Silicon Valley, Asia’s VC space has you in its sights
Venture Capital
<p>Silicon Valley may have Apple, Google, and Facebook but as far as venture capital investments are concerned, Asia’s beginning to give it a serious run for its money.<br /> “The venture capital industry in Asia has seen strong growth over the past year, and in Q3 the aggregate value of deals was comparable to the total value of deals in North America. India and China, the largest part of the Asian industry, marked 709 financings in the quarter, worth a combined $16.9bn. There were 932 venture capital deals in North America in the same period, worth an aggregate $17.5bn.”<br /> Preqin adds that total Q1 to Q3 venture capital investments in China and India have surged to $36.2 billion – an over 180% climb from 2014’s $19.9 billion total – bringing Asian VC investments just $17 billion shy of North America’s $53.5 billion for the same time period.</p> <p>Nine of the ten largest venture capital deals in the third quarter were based in Asia as well, with Didi Kuaidi’s two recent rounds bagging the top two spots.</p> <p>However, North America may still have a chance to stretch their lead. While deal numbers in the west has fallen, deal sizes continue to climb with some late stage and debt financing deals reaching “record levels.”</p> <p>Deal numbers in Asia are still climbing though, as Preqin’s Christopher Elvin notes:<br /> “The venture capital industry is developing in two different directions between emerging and mature markets. In emerging markets, particularly in Asia, rapidly developing economies like China and India are providing increasing numbers of opportunities for investors and fund managers. While average deal size is increasing slightly, the key driver of growth is the increasing number of deals.”<br /> Photo: brefoto</p>
Sweden is looking to be the world's first cashless country
<p>As the world’s financial hubs scramble to get ahead in the fintech game, researchers think it’s Sweden that will win the crown (pun intended) of the world’s first fully cashless society.</p> <p>The nordic nation already has a reputation for being the world’s most cash free country but a recent report by Stockholm's KTH Royal Institute of Technology reckon’s the Swedes are poised to rid themselves their loose change forever.</p> <p>Niklas Arvidsson, a researcher in industrial economics and management at KTH, boasts that the rapid expanding adoption of mobile payments means that his country simply has no need for your primitive paper notes. He says:<br /> "Cash is still an important means of payment in many countries' markets, but that no longer applies here in Sweden. Our use of cash is small, and it's decreasing rapidly."<br /> The report goes on to say that  there are less than 80 billion Swedish crowns ($9.6 billion) now in circulation, down from 106 billion six years ago. What’s more, of that amount only around 40-60% is actually in regular circulation, with the being stored away or traded in an underground economy.</p> <p>However, Arvidsson stops short of giving a date for when we can expect to see the final end of the cash crown. There are still plenty of reasons why paper and coins will persist. An article by the Guardian last year, for example, cited Sweden’s technology-resistant senior citizens, and the need to cater to cash-obsessed foreigners visiting the country, as just two reasons why the 100% cashless dream maybe some way off yet.<br /> Photo: Margo Akermark</p>
Bridgewater’s All-Weather Fund down 6% for the year
Hedge Funds
<p>Guess it couldn’t weather this stormy 2015.<br /> “The $70 billion Bridgewater All Weather Fund, managed by hedge fund titan Ray Dalio, was down 1.9 percent in September and is down 6 percent through the first nine months of the year, three people familiar with the fund's performance said on Tuesday.</p> <p>The All Weather Fund is one of two big portfolios managed by Bridgewater Associates and uses a so-called ‘risk parity’ strategy that is supposed to make money for investors if bonds or stocks sell off, though not simultaneously.”<br /> Reuters does add that it’s up 3.7% for October, though unfortunately for them, spoos has climbed 5.8% in the same time period. As for Dalio’s Pure Alpha II Fund, it did slightly better with a 3.9% year to date return.<br /> Photo: Fadil Basymeleh</p>
Rothman: No hard landing for China
Asset Management
<p>While half of the world debates the veracity of China’s GDP growth data, Matthews Asia’s strategist Andy Rothman would rather that people focus on something much more important – the nation’s apparent shift from exports to consumption:<br /> “The figure is just a tad below the 7% pace of GDP growth for the first two quarters of this year, and is 0.3 percentage points slower than the 3Q14 pace of 7.2%—which was 0.6 percentage points slower than the 7.9% rate in 3Q13. This is the inevitable deceleration of China’s growth due to changes in demographics, slower growth in construction activity and the base effect. The financial media will likely be able to write headlines about the slowest GDP growth rates since the Tang Dynasty for many quarters to come. But is that really the most important part of the story?</p> <p>We are pleased to see that the rebalancing of China’s economy toward consumption and away from exports and investments continues to make significant progress. This rebalancing is key to our investment strategy. For the first time ever, services and consumption (the tertiary* part of the economy) accounted for more than half of China’s GDP, at 51.4%, up from 41.4% a decade ago. This mitigates weakness in manufacturing and construction (the secondary* part), and, if this rebalancing continues, it should mean that macro deceleration will be gradual.”<br /> That would be great, but unfortunately, his argument does have a few holes in it. For one thing, there was just no way services put on a good show in the third quarter. As the always astute Christopher Balding pointed out following the GDP release:<br /> “Service growth was boosted enormously in Q2 by the enormous increase in financial services from the stock market bubble. Given the collapse in the Chinese stock market in Q3, by almost any measure such as price level, margin lending, or trading volume, it seems shall we say puzzling that service growth remained so robust.”<br /> Consumer data meanwhile seems to be a little murky. Clothing and electronic outputs have not been great, which doesn’t seem simpatico with the supposed 10.9% climb in retail sales.</p> <p>Nevertheless, given how Matthews’ funds are doing – the Matthews China Dividend Fund returned 8.45% YTD compared to the MSCI China’s negative 3.44% – chances are these guys know a thing or two about what they're doing. Stay tuned.<br /> Photo: Jim Winstead</p>
Chart toppers: Diversification, China and the Fed’s dual mandate
Capital Markets
<p>Key Points</p> <p> Diversification is always (and especially now) essential<br /> Does the linkage between the U.S. and China’s markets reflect economic reality?<br /> Uncertainty around Federal Reserve (Fed) policy is heightened by its dual mandate: inflation and employment</p> <p>From time to time, instead of diving into a singular topic in these reports, I am going to do a“Chart Toppers” review, where I share some of the more interesting and relevant charts I’ve put together or seen on a variety of topics.</p> <p>In this first installment, I am going to highlight the merits of diversification with a slightly different take on a popular visual used in the investment management business for quite some time. Next I’ll hone in on the relationship between the US and Chinese stock markets and economies. Finally, I’ll try to spin a slightly different tale on the Fed’s two mandates: inflation and jobs.<br /> Diversification—an essential tool for investors’ financial (and emotional) well-being<br /> The chart below, which I often refer to as the asset class “quilt” chart, is a popular one used by a variety of investment management firm over the years. The common structure of this visual is to show a variety of asset classes from year-to-year, highlighting how they move in and out of favor—often the best performer in one year falls toward the bottom in the next year, and so on.</p> <p>What I thought would be interesting, given how volatile (and frustrating) the markets have been this year, would be to just look at 2015 to-date and rank a number of broad asset classes by monthly performance. As remarkable as these quilt charts look when ranking asset classes year-by-year, it’s even more remarkable what’s occurred this year.</p> <p>Wild Performance Swings This Year</p> <p>Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research with data provided by Morningstar, Inc., *as of September 30, 2015. Asset class performance represented by annual total returns for the following indexes: S&amp;amp;P 500® Index (US Lg Cap), Russell 2000® Index (US Sm Cap), MSCI EAFE® Net of Taxes (Int’l Dev), MSCI Emerging Markets IndexSM (EM), MSCI US REIT Index (REITs), S&amp;amp;P GSCI® (Commodities), Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Core US Bonds), Barclays U.S. High Yield Bond Index (High Yld Bonds), Barclays Global Aggregate Ex-USD TR Index (Int’l Dev Bonds), Barclays Emerging Markets USD Bond TR Index (EM Bonds). Past results are not an indication or guarantee of future performance. Returns assume reinvestment of dividends, interest, and capital gains. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested in directly.</p> <p>As you can see at first glance, there is no discernible pattern. In fact, look at the first four months of the year. Commodities went from last place, to first place, to last place, and then back to first place…all just in the first four months of the year! Real estate investment trusts (REITs) had a similar pattern, but in the opposite direction. Commodities ranked at the top twice, while at the bottom four times; while REITs ranked at the top four times, but at the bottom twice. Small cap stocks also topped the rankings two months in a row; but during five of the other</p>
Daily Scan: Shanghai stocks fall 3%; Credit Suisse to raise $6.3 billion
Capital Markets
<p>Updated throughout the day</p> <p>October 21</p> <p>Good evening everyone. Champagne wishes and stimulus dreams may have sent Japanese indices to new highs Wednesday but somebody big must’ve had his stops hit over in the mainland as the Shanghai Composite – after climbing as much 0.62% earlier in the day – finished the session down a staggering 3.06% on purported “profit taking.” China’s Shenzhen Composite meanwhile tanked a massive 5.94% while the aforementioned Japanese indices – the Nikkei and the Topix – climbed 1.91% and 1.84% respectively.</p> <p>Over in FX, the Malaysian ringgit – weighed by oil’s recent slide – slipped another 1% while the kiwi – following a drop in whole milk powder prices – dipped 0.7%. The European markets meanwhile were mostly lower with the FTSE 100 down 0.2%, while the DAX and the CAC were both down around 0.5%.</p> <p>Here’s what else you need to know:</p> <p>Credit Suisse to raise $6.3 billion in capital. In a strategy update meant to strengthen its capital reserves, the Swiss bank announced that it plans to raise $6.3 billion through a CHF 4.7 billion rights offering and a CHF 1.35 billion private placement. It also plans to spin off its domestic Swiss business so it could “buy other banks,” and slim down its investment banking operations. Credit Suisse</p> <p>Watchdogs scramble to rescue Sinosteel. In a rare intervention in the bond market, China’s National Development and Reform Commission and the Assets Supervision and Administration Commission both stepped in to avert a potential default by the financially-strapped Sinosteel. Bondholders of the state-owned enterprise – who were looking to redeem up to 2 billion yuan on their principal – were told that the redemption date was moved to November 16. SCMP (paywall)</p> <p>Officials investigate former Sinopec chair over Angola deals. Anti-corruption investigators – in part of Xi Jinping’s three-year war against graft in the energy industry – are looking into the possibility that ex-Sinopec chairman Su Shulin led the state-owned oil major to overpay for its rights to an Angolan offshore oil field. Wall Street Journal (paywall)</p> <p>Japanese exports disappoint. Expecting a 3.8% gain, analysts were instead surprised with a 0.6% climb in exports. Imports however were slightly better than expected, coming in at -11.1% versus the forecasted -12%, but still way worse than August’s -3.1% reading. Financial Times (paywall)</p> <p>Kiwi credit card spending falls. Kiwi retailers sure won’t be happy about this. New Zealand credit card spending punched in its first decline for the year, falling 1.9% in September from a 1.1% climb the month before. Year on year, spending climbed just 7.3% - a huge drop from August’s record 10.5% rise. ForexLive</p> <p>CICC slashes IPO target. The China International Capital Corp (CICC), arguably one of the country’s top domestic investment banks, has slashed its Hong Kong IPO target from $1 billion to $800 million, citing weak valuations. The fact that several large firms such as China Huarong and China Re are set to IPO in the same month may have factored in as well. </p>
Daily Scan: Stocks slip as Yahoo disapoints; Paul Ryan pressured to run for speaker
Capital Markets
<p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Updated throughout the day</p> <p>October 20</p> <p>Good evening. Stocks closed lower Tuesday, after opening with a drop. The Dow fell 0.1%, as did the S&amp;P 500, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. The Stoxx 600 was down 0.4%. Will housing be a scene-stealer during earnings week? On Monday, the National Association of Home Builders reported its index touched a 10-year high. Even so, stocks could hardly muster enthusiasm as poor growth figures in China and weak energy prices made investors uneasy.  Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke Tuesday morning at a ceremony honoring the first woman head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, emphasizing the importance of accurate economic data. She did not comment on the current economic condition.</p> <p>Here’s what else you need to know:</p> <p>Paul Ryan is feeling the peer pressure. House Republicans are meeting with the Wisconsin representative to discuss whether he will run for speaker. The GOP has been at a standstill since House majority leader Kevin McCarthy withdrew his name from the race to replace John Boehner two weeks ago. Boehner plans to resign at the end of the month, but says he will stay until a successor is named. New York Times</p> <p>Register your drones! U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx says that a taskforce is looking into the creation of a drone registry, to create more accountability for the unmanned aircrafts. The agency fears that the number of drones will skyrocket as Christmas presents this year. BBC</p> <p>Yahoo's revenue drops. The company reported an 8.4% fall in adjusted quarterly revenue. The net profit was 8 cents per share, compared to $6.70 per share a year ago. Reuters</p> <p>Jim Webb drops out of Democratic race. The former Virginia senator is leaving the Democratic presidential race, but says he is considering running as an independent. Politico</p> <p>Russian air strike kills Syrian rebel leader. The strikes were a third attack by Russian war planes against the First Coastal Division Group, and in support of President Bashar al-Assad. A rebel commander, four other fighters, and at least 15 civilians were killed. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says the death toll is closer to 45 rebels and civilians. Reuters</p> <p>Housing starts in sixth straight month surpass one million. The September numbers were better than expected at 1.21 million vs 1.147 million, and were led by demand for rental units. Multi-family surged 18.3% to 466,000 units. That number is often volatile, but the overall trend points to a well-grounded recovery in housing.  CNBC</p> <p>Apple Music has 15 million users. Of that, 6.5 million are paying subscribers to the streaming service, and the other 8.5 million are on three-month trials. Apple Music launched June 30, and costs $9.99/month or $14.99/month for families. Wall Street Journal</p> <p>BNY Mellon beats estimates, but hold the champagne.</p>
HBO nails startup life
Lifestyle, 4:01
<p>HBO's "Silicon Valley" is the most realistic TV or movie portrayal of the tech world in Silicon Valley according to entrepreneur and executives, reports The Atlantic. But outside of the blatant look at tech life, "Game of Thrones" and "Gossip Girl" are better at displaying the cutthroat behavior, misogyny, and power struggles that define the industry, insiders say. Ouch.<br /> Photo: SUB SONIX</p>