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The Week Ahead: China GDP, an ECB rate decision, more guidance for the Fed

By NexChange
Capital Markets

(Note: all times HKT)
Good day. It is a busy economic calendar across the world this week. Markets will scrutinise important data from China on Monday, including quarter 3 GDP figures, for clearer signs that annual economic growth is on course. President Xi Jinping warned last week that maintaining an annual 7% rate is tough, but he has also repeatedly emphasised that the Chinese economy is in transition to a consumer-led model. The retail sales number should indicate whether a shift is underway.

In Europe, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. Few analysts expect any change from the current 0.5% benchmark against a backdrop of continued sluggish economic activity in most of the Eurozone and following recent official statements that the ECB’s quantitative easing program might be extended.

Housing and employment figures as well as earnings announcements by leading manufacturers will provide further clues about the effects of a strong dollar on the sustainability of US economic growth. Speeches by two Fed officials might give markets a better idea about interest rate intentions – but don’t bet on it.

Here is a list of the most important official data releases this week:
Monday, Oct 19 
09:00    China Gross Domestic Product   (Q3, YoY) - Forecast: 7%; Previous: 7%

12:30     China Retail Sales (Sep, YoY) – Forecast: 10.8%; Previous: 10.8%

12:30     China Industrial Production (Sep, YoY) – Forecast: 6%; Previous: 6.1%

15:30     Hong Kong Unemployment (Sep) – Forecast: 3.4%; Previous: 3.3%

17:00     German Buba Monthly Report

21:00     US NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct) – Previous: 62 62

23:00     US Fed Lacker speech

Tuesday, Oct 20

08:30     Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

13:00     Germany Producer Price Index (Sep, YoY) – Forecast: -1.7%; Previous: -1.7%

19:30     US Housing Starts (Sep, MoM) – Forecast: 1.147m; Previous: 1.126m

20:30     US Fed's Dudley speech

Wednesday, Oct 21

24h         Hong Kong Chung Yeung Festival – Markets closed

06:50     Japan Exports (Sep, YoY) (Sep) – Forecast: 3.4%; Previous: 3.1%

06:50     Japan Imports (Sep, YoY) – Forecast: -11.7%; Previous: -3.1%

11:30     Japan All Industry Activity Index (Aug MoM) – Previous: 0.2%

15:30     UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Sep) – Previous: £11.305B

Thursday, Oct 22

08:30     National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q2)

13:00     Spain Unemployment Survey (Q3, YoY) – Previous: 22.37%

15:30     UK Retail Sales (Sep, YoY) – Forecast: 4.7%; Previous: 3.7%

15:30     Hong Kong Consumer Price Index (Oct, YoY) - Previous: 2.4%

18:45     ECB Interest Rate Decision

19:30     US Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct 9) – Previous: 2.158m

19:30     US Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 16) - Previous: 255,000

19:30     US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep) – Previous: -0.41

19:30     ECB Monetary Policy Statement

20:00     US Housing Price Index (Aug, MoM) – Previous: 0.6%

21:00     US Existing Home Sales Change (Sep, MoM) – Previous: -4.8%

21:00     US CB Leading Indicator (Sep, MoM) – Forecast: 0.0%; Previous: 0.1%

21:00     Europe (Prelim.) Consumer Confidence (Oct) – Forecast: -7.5; Previous: -7.1

Friday, Oct 23

08:35     Japan: Nomura/JMMA (Prelim) Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (Oct)

09:00     China Leading Economic Index (Sep) – Previous: 1%
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