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Battlefield Choices

By Advisor Perspectives
Capital Markets

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will soon decide if they want to engage in a trade war. In this issue of Sinology, we explore the options available to both leaders. A key conclusion is that if either side chooses war, the impact on the Chinese economy and on the majority of listed Chinese companies will be quite modest, because it is not an export-driven economy.

Not Your Father’s Chinese Economy

Before I discuss the battlefield choices Trump and Xi may make, I want to emphasize that forecasts that a trade war will seriously damage the Chinese economy and its listed companies are based on an outdated understanding of that country. The ongoing rebalancing of the Chinese economy has already made it far less dependent on trade and more focused on domestic demand, which should mitigate the impact of a trade war with the U.S.

Read more at Advisor Perspectives.

Photo: Public Domain

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